Betting strategy

A betting strategy, also known as a betting system, refers to a structured approach adopted by gamblers with the aim of achieving profitability in their gambling endeavors. The fundamental premise behind a betting strategy is to somehow shift the house edge in favor of the player. However, achieving this is deemed impossible in games of pure probability with fixed odds, akin to the concept of a perpetual motion machine. Betting systems often rely on statistical analysis as their foundation.

Mathematically speaking, no betting system can alter the long-term expected outcomes of a game characterized by random and independent trials. While these systems may enhance the likelihood of short-term wins, they typically do so at the expense of increased risk. Despite their inability to guarantee long-term profitability, betting systems can offer an enjoyable gambling experience for some individuals. Strategies that incorporate factors such as changing odds, like card counting and handicapping in certain games, may influence long-term results.

Richard Arnold Epstein, a notable game theorist, formally expressed this concept in his work “The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic.” Epstein's theorem asserts that regardless of the betting system employed, the mathematical expectation of gain per unit amount wagered remains unchanged over multiple plays in a game with constant single-trial probabilities of winning, losing, and tying.

Common examples of betting systems span various gambling activities:

- In card games, players may employ card counting techniques. - Roulette players may utilize the Martingale system. - Sports bettors might engage in handicapping methods to assess and predict outcomes. - Horse racing enthusiasts may rely on hedging or arbitrage strategies to maximize profits or minimize losses.

In the realm of sports betting, two prominent approaches are often employed:

1. Modelling: This involves the development of predictive mathematical algorithms to process large amounts of data, providing estimates of the true odds of an event. Bettors use these model outputs to identify value bets when bookmakers offer odds with higher payouts than their models predict.

2. Cloning: Cloning entails basing estimates of true odds on existing odds provided by sharp bookmakers or exchanges like Pinnacle or Betfair Exchange. Bettors capitalize on discrepancies between odds offered by different operators, particularly when sharp bookmakers adjust their odds, creating opportunities for value betting.

One notable strategy that emerged in recent years is the “dropping odds” strategy. Bettors monitor Pinnacle's odds and capitalize on drops in odds by placing bets at other bookmakers offering more favorable odds before they adjust. This strategy exploits the delay in odds adjustment by most bookmakers, providing opportunities for value betting.

Dropping odds alert services, such as Pinnacle Odds Dropper, have emerged to assist bettors in identifying potential value bets by alerting them to odds fluctuations across various markets.