Oscar's grind

Oscar's Grind, also known as Hoyle's Press or the Pluscoup Progression, is a betting strategy employed by gamblers in situations where the outcome is evenly distributed between two results of equal value, such as in a coin toss. It's considered a classic example of a positive progression strategy and was first detailed by Allan Wilson in his 1965 book, “The Casino Gambler's Guide.”

The fundamental idea behind Oscar's Grind is to structure bets in such a way that, in the event of a losing streak followed by a winning streak of equal length, a profit is realized. This strategy operates on the premise that wins and losses tend to occur in streaks, and ideally, bets are adjusted accordingly—kept low during losing streaks and increased during winning streaks.

Here's how it works in practice:

Description: - Oscar's Grind breaks down the gambling activity into sessions, with each session representing a sequence of consecutive wagers made until a profit of 1 unit is achieved. - Each session begins with a bet of 1 unit and concludes once 1 unit of profit is attained. - If a bet is lost, the session continues, and the same bet size is repeated. - When a bet is won following a loss, the bet size is increased by 1 unit. However, this increase is skipped if the current bet would result in a total profit of at least 1 unit, ensuring that exactly 1 unit of profit is secured.

Algorithm:

  bet
  if bet_won then
      profit := profit + betsize
      if profit < unit then
          if profit + betsize + unit > unit then
              betsize := unit − profit
          else
              betsize := betsize + unit
  else
      profit := profit − betsize

Example: - An illustrative session is provided to demonstrate the progression of bets and resulting profits or losses.

Analysis: - Oscar's Grind shares similarities with other betting systems like Martingale and Labouchère, in that under ideal conditions (infinite resources and time), every session would yield a profit. However, in practice, this is not feasible, and the strategy can lead to significant losses in the long run. - While the system relies on the notion of losing streaks being balanced out by winning streaks in the short term, there is no mathematical basis or proof supporting the occurrence of such streaks in gambling. - Variations of Oscar's Grind exist, including adaptations for non-even bets and methods to reduce variance, but none can guarantee long-term profitability.

In essence, while Oscar's Grind may appear promising in theory, like many betting strategies, its effectiveness is limited in practice and carries inherent risks.